It is anticipated that ICICI Bank will post robust NII growth in Q3FY25, along with a small increase in net profit. Analysts expect a slight contraction of margins and continued substantial business expansion with high-cost ratios.
ICICI Bank Q3 Results 2025 Preview:Â
Today, the second-biggest private sector bank in India, ICICI Bank, will reveal its Q3 earnings. The financial results for the third quarter of FY25 will be reviewed and approved by the board of directors today, January 25.
With a slight increase in net profit, ICICI Bank is predicted to achieve robust net interest income (NII) growth in the fiscal third quarter that concluded in December 2024.
In Q3FY25, analysts anticipate that the private lender’s business growth will remain robust, with high expense ratios and marginally moderated profitability.
Axis Securities:
Axis Securities predicts ICICI Bank’s Q3 net profit to increase 11.4% to ₹11,448 crore from ₹10,272 crore in the same quarter of the previous year. According to estimates, NII would increase 10.6% yearly to ₹20,663 crore from ₹18,679 in Q3FY25. Prior Provisions: Operating profit (PPOP) is anticipated to grow 13.7% yearly to ₹16,742 crore.
With a steady Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR), the brokerage company anticipates that ICICI Bank’s business development will remain robust. It anticipates no significant issues with asset quality, even though credit costs are expected to be under control.
Citi:
Citi anticipates that ICICI Bank’s credit growth will decrease to 14% year over year and 3% quarter over quarter, which aligns with the system. Secured retail, MSME, and business banking will support the year-over-year progress. A rise in CoD and a seasonal drag in interest reversal on KCC stress in Q3 might result from deposit repricing and a drop in CASA. In Q3, Citi projects that the Net Interest Margin (NIM) would moderate by four basis points. Q4 would show the CRR reduction and day-count benefit. Because of seasonal KCC stress, it anticipates that slippages may slightly increase sequentially but stay below 2%.
Credit costs are also predicted to be managed with 80% provision coverage and a 1.07% contingency buffer; nevertheless, upward normalization towards 50 bps is anticipated. Opex may visually increase QoQ on a low base in Q2 because of marketing expenditures, variable costs associated with holiday volume, etc. Citi stated that Treasury support will be minimal in the third quarter because of the limited yield movement.
Prabhudas Lilladher:
According to PL Capital, NII’s net profit is predicted to increase 10.4% YoY to ₹20,630 crore in Q3, while ICICI Bank’s is expected to grow 8.8% YoY to ₹11,180 crore. Provisions are anticipated to increase to ₹1,600 crore, a 52.5% YoY and 29.8% QoQ increase. Regarding asset quality, the Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio is expected to decline by six basis points to 2.03% in December from 1.97% in September. While rates may stay the same, the trend for loan growth may continue and reach 3.4%, while the margin may decline by three basis points due to rising CoFs.
YES Securities:
Because of its unique development trajectory, YES Securities anticipates that ICICI Bank will record sequential loan growth in the range of 4.0%. Because the cost of deposits rises faster than the rate of advances, NII growth will be slower than average loan growth. As a result, NIM will be lower sequentially.
The rise of sequential fee income will correspond to the growth of loans. Opex growth would lag behind business expansion by a small amount. Seasonality would cause slippages to increase sequentially. According to YES Securities, provisions would increase sequentially.
It projects a 15.5% YoY increase in ICICI Bank’s Q3FY25 net profit at ₹11,864 crore, an 11.3% YoY increase in NII at ₹20,788 crore, and a 16.6% YoY increase in PPOP to ₹17,169 crore.
Motilal Oswal:
Motilal Oswal thinks that in Q3FY25, ICICI Bank’s net profit might expand 11.2% YoY to ₹11,420 crore, while NII could grow 10.9% YoY to ₹20,710 crore. Loan growth is anticipated to be 15.1% YoY, while deposit growth is 17.5% YoY. QoQ stability in asset quality is expected.
ICICI Bank Share Price Trend:
The share price of ICICI Bank has dropped 7% in a single month but just 1% in the last six months. The stock of ICICI Bank has increased by 21% in a single year and by over 38% in two.
