Dow Jones Futures Fall: Trump Will Not Preclude A Recession Despite A Stock Market Tariff Decline

Early Monday morning saw a little decline in Dow Jones futures, S&P 500 futures, and Nasdaq futures. With tariffs and associated uncertainties remaining a primary concern for Wall Street, President Donald Trump refuses to rule out a recession.

The Nasdaq composite fell below its 200-day moving average throughout the last week, causing the stock market to sustain crippling losses. When Fed chairman Jerome Powell stated that he still sees a “solid” jobs market, the S&P 500 recovered from undercutting its 200-day line on Friday. Markets have been shaken and rattled by the announcement of Trump’s tariffs, and more is on the horizon.

Several established leaders, including Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA), kept purchasing off this past week. Even worse, several companies that had been holding up well, including Stride (LRN), Netflix (NFLX), Spotify (SPOT), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Carpenter Technology (CRS), DoorDash (DASH), Costco Wholesale (COST), and Carpenter Technology (CRS), firmly dropped below their 50-day lines last week.

Some regions are surviving. However, the general picture is clear: At this time, investors should be highly protective. As part of a quarterly rebalancing, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Friday night that Expand Energy (EXE), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), TKO Group (TKO), and DoorDash shares will enter the S&P 500 index. The shares of DASH surged.

Dow Jones Futures Today:

Futures for the Dow Jones dropped 0.3% from fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.35%. Futures are down from their Sunday night lows. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.28%.

Futures for crude oil saw a little decline. Remember that overnight trading in Dow futures and other markets does not always correspond to actual trading during the next regular stock market session.

President Trump stated in an interview with the news on Sunday that “There is a period of transition” that would ultimately benefit the economy. Still, he declined to rule out a recession this year.

President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports by 10% and placed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. He swiftly granted one-month waivers of one-month waivers to vehicles and other products from Canada and Mexico. However, company and investor confidence has been damaged by the tariffs and associated uncertainties. Trump accused “globalists” of causing the stock market purchase on Thursday.

Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, stated on Sunday that he anticipates the implementation of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on Wednesday. Several tariff deadlines, including those for Canada and Mexico, are approaching on April 2.

The stock market plummeted again, with the top equities collapsing and the Nasdaq breaching the 200-day moving average. The comparatively positive remarks made by Powell caused the significant markets to reverse upward on Friday.

Last week’s stock market activity saw a 2.4% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P index tested its 200-day line after losing 3.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq composite fell 3.45% and 4.05%, respectively, to five-month lows.

The Nvidia-led AI stock surge that propelled the market higher for the previous two years is temporarily halted, in addition to the weariness caused by Trump’s tariffs.

With his Friday description of the present labor market as “solid,” Fed head Powell allayed Wall Street’s economic concerns. Again, Powell indicated he was not very concerned by saying that the central bank could wait for “greater clarity” on the overall impact of Trump’s initiatives before taking further action.

The stock market is attempting a rally on Friday, but a correction is in effect. Despite the dollar’s decline, gold bets are doing well. McDonald’s (MCD) and other fast-food stocks are rising. Stocks in Europe and China have been increasing in response to stimulus measures. Several insurance stocks are forming.

However, a lot of other well-known equities have been declining. Indeed, erstwhile titans like Tesla and Nvidia continued to plummet. However, stocks like Netflix, JPMorgan, Costco, and Spotify that appeared robust dropped precipitously below their 50-day lines and occasionally reached purchase prices.

After plunging to 4.11% on Tuesday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield increased nine basis points to 4.32% for the week. Despite Powell’s wait-and-see remarks, the likelihood of Fed rate reduction has increased significantly. U.S. crude oil futures dropped 3.9% to $67.04 a barrel last week despite a Friday rebound.

ETFs:

The Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY), one of the growth ETFs, fell 7.3% last week. There was a 4.1% decline in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV). Nvidia stock was in the top position in the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which saw a 3.3% decline.

Last week, the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) lost 5.2%, and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) fell 5.8%. The most critical component of Ark Invest’s ETFs is still Tesla stock.

Last week, the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) had a 3.6% decline. While the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) marginally increased by 0.2%, the Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) had a 3.9% decline. There was a 1.5% fall in the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI). 5.9% was the Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) loss. One of the central XLF holdings is JPMorgan shares.

Tesla, Nvidia Dive:

Tesla’s shares fell 10.35% to 262.67, below its 200-day line, marking its sixth consecutive weekly loss. All post-election gains were round-tripped on Friday as equities momentarily undercut their close on Election Day, November 5. Following early optimism that Elon Musk’s tight relationship with President Trump would significantly boost Tesla, there is a growing perception that the company’s sales and brand are suffering.

Delivery of the new Model Y started in China late last month and is already underway in the U.S. and Europe. However, wait times are not very long.

Musk continued to write extensively on Ukraine and other topics throughout the weekend, so Tesla’s stock was forecast to be a little down on Sunday night.

For the week, Nvidia’s shares fell 9.8% to 112.69. On Friday, intraday, shares fell below post-DeepSeek lows and reached their lowest levels in six months.

On Sunday evening, the NVDA stock was reported to be somewhat down. This weekend might be a great time to see the film “Get Out.” The wisest course of action is to leave and wait for improved circumstances.

Although Friday’s rebound was pleasant, this headline-driven market frequently experiences whipsaw behavior. Over the past six sessions, the leading indices have staged three upward reversals, with the first two seeing increases of at least 1%. However, those have been isolated events in a steep decline so far.

Hold off until the market exhibits consistent upward momentum. Next week, next month, or even next year might bring it. Being prepared is essential.

Many names will be removed from watchlists, necessitating significant overhauls. Seek out stocks that are exhibiting relative strength. However, as demonstrated this past week by Netflix, Costco, Spotify, and others, equities that are strong now might be massive losers tomorrow.

We’ll be concentrating on inflation reports this coming week. Meanwhile, if the Republican-controlled Congress fails to approve a new spending package, the government will shut down at midnight on Friday.