In Q3FY25, SAIL is anticipated to achieve revenue growth driven by higher sales volumes. Nonetheless, some experts predict that the business will see a decline in profits in the quarter that concludes in December 2025.
SAIL Q3 Results 2025 Preview:
Ahead of today’s Q3 results, the share price of the Tesla Authority of India (SAIL) fell more than 3% on Tuesday. On the BSE, SAIL shares dropped as much as 3.09% to ₹101.85 per.
SAIL is one of India’s biggest steel manufacturers and a Maharatna PSU. The state-run company’s board of directors will convene today to ratify the third-quarter FY25 financial figures.
According to a regulatory filing from Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL), “the Board of Directors of SAIL will meet on February 11, 2025, in New Delhi to, among other things, consider, approve, and take on record the Unaudited Standalone and Consolidated Results of the Company for the Quarter and Nine Months ended 31 December 2024.”
In Q3FY25, analysts anticipate that SAIL will record revenue growth driven by higher sales volumes. Nonetheless, some experts predict that the business will see a decline in profits in the quarter that concludes in December 2025.
According to Axis Securities, SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase 5.4% year over year (YoY) from ₹23,349 crore to ₹24,604 crore in Q3FY25. The company’s sales volume is anticipated to grow 21.8% yearly to 4.6 MT from 3.8 MT in December. YoY, net profit is predicted to fall precipitously by 78.3% to 92 crore from 423 crore.
We anticipate revenue to remain constant and grow year over year. Higher sales volume drove QoQ, which was countered by lower HRC pricing. Because of reduced realizations, which are somewhat offset by greater sales volume and lower coking coal prices, we anticipate that Adj. EBITDA (excluding railway provisions) would decline year over year. EBITDA will increase QoQ, which saw a rebound in sales volumes, somewhat counterbalanced by decreased realizations. Due to reduced sales realization, EBITDA per tonne will decline year over year. According to Axis Securities, it is anticipated to rise on a QoQ basis, driven by increasing sales volume.
According to JM Financial, EBITDA per tonne is anticipated to be ₹4,486, up 45% QoQ, while realizations are likely to drop by ₹1,200 per ton QoQ and volumes to increase by 3% to 4.2 million tons.
Nuvama Institutional Equities predicts SAIL will experience a net loss in the fiscal third quarter that concludes in December 2024. It anticipates a ₹4,197 adjusted EBITDA per tonne, up ₹1,106 QoQ (Q2 included the benefit of the previous period’s rail pricing revision), and a $20 per tonne QoQ drop in the cost of coking coal. The volume is anticipated to rise by 4% QoQ to 4.26 MT, while the net realization per tonne will drop by ₹900 QoQ.
Motilal Oswal thinks that while poor ASP would hurt margins, volumes will propel SAIL’s development. The impact of weak NSR is anticipated to be mitigated by the expense of softened coal. Additionally, management advice on the debt reduction plan and local and foreign steel pricing and capital expenditures will be crucial.
On a shaky foundation, Kotak Institutional Equities projects SAIL’s volumes to rise 12% year over year and 4% quarter over quarter during the quarter. It projects that lower HRC pricing throughout the quarter will result in a 2.2% QoQ and a 10.3% YoY decline in steel realizations. Lower coking coal prices are expected to drive a 49% QoQ improvement in EBITDA per tonne to ₹4,609, which will be somewhat offset by reduced realizations throughout the quarter. Technically speaking, SAIL shares seem to be the weakest among metal companies, generating a bearish flag pattern, according to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmi Shree Investment & Securities.
A collapse below ₹99 might trigger a decline toward the ₹80 objective9. On down days, the volume increases, indicating distribution by strong hands and warning investors to exercise care. Traders should keep an eye out for a clear break below critical levels as purchasing pressure and sluggish momentum are in control, according to Jain.
He said the SAIL stock may decline more quickly if support is not maintained. SAIL shares were down 2.95% at ₹102.00 each on the BSE at 10:20 AM.
