Ahead of consumer confidence data and after President Trump reiterated the prospect of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, US markets are sluggish amid a cautious atmosphere. Trump reaffirmed the possibility of imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting Monday. Reports of more export curbs to China also put pressure on chip stocks.
US Futures:
- Dow future 0.15% at 43528
- S&P futures 0.03% at 5984
- Nasdaq futures -0.09% at 21335
In Europe
- FTSE 0.60% at 8711
- Dax 0.57% at 22538
- Trump reiterates Mexico, Canada trade tariff threat
- US consumer confidence data is due later
- Nvidia and Intel fall on reports of China export restrictions
- Oil slips, giving back yesterday’s gains
Concerned Stocks on Trump’s Warning:
Ahead of consumer confidence data and after President Trump reiterated the prospect of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, US markets are sluggish amid a cautious atmosphere.
In February, Trump threatened border controls with neighboring nations to postpone the proposed 25% trade tariffs. They might still be used on Monday of next week, though.
The fact that the stock market hasn’t dropped off as much as it did at the end of January indicates that the market is still considering this negotiating leverage rather than expecting Trump to move forward. Only a minor chance of trade tariffs occurring is priced into the market.
The cryptocurrency and foreign exchange markets react more than the stock markets. Future focus will be on U.S. consumer confidence data, which is predicted to drop from 104.1 to 102.5 in February. Given the weaker-than-expected University of Michigan mood data at the end of last week, a decline approaching the 100 level would set off a market reaction.
Following rumors that the Trump administration was considering tightening regulations on chip technology exports to China, Nvidia and Intel are declining.
Amidst the decline in cryptocurrencies, stocks linked to the industry, including Strategy and Coinbase, are plummeting precipitously. The price of bitcoin dropped 5% on the last day. In the face of an uncertain operating environment, Home Depot is declining after reporting lower-than-expected comparable sales growth for 2026.
Dow Jones Forecast:
Before regaining support at 43,350, the Dow Jones dropped from about 44,500. Sellers remain optimistic about more losses due to the dip below the 50 SMA and the RSI below 50. To continue the bearish trend towards 43k and 42,250, sellers must remove 44,350. Purchasers may try to go back over the 50 SMA towards 44k if the 43,350 support holds before refocusing on 45k.
Trump’s trade tariff statements stoked worries about the US economy’s future, which caused the USD to decline and follow lower US Treasury rates.
After German GDP statistics revealed a 0.2% decline in the fourth quarter of the year, the EUR/USD is strengthening, taking advantage of the lower USD. Additionally, negotiated salary rates decreased from 5.43% to 4.12% in Q4. In 2025, the downturn is anticipated to persist.
Despite BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra’s dovish remarks and a declining USD, the GBP/USD exchange rate is strengthening. Dhingra favors a speedier interest rate cut due to sluggish and unimproving consumption. Dhingra decided to lower rates by 50 basis points at the February meeting.
Following a little increase yesterday, oil prices are now seeing slight declines. Ahead of API inventory data later today, investors consider the demand picture and Iranian sanctions.
Following the new US sanctions on Iranian oil yesterday, which sparked worries about a more limited supply worldwide, oil prices slightly increased. This month, Trump imposed a second round of sanctions on Iran to completely stop its oil shipments.
Investors are also keeping an eye on peace negotiations over Ukraine. US sanctions against Russia may be lifted if the Russian invasion ends, increasing the amount of oil available on the market.
Due to worries that a global trade war would impede GDP, the demand forecast is now faltering. Data on the US API oil inventories is coming later.
