A severe snowstorm is expected to impact Central Virginia on Wednesday and Thursday. The timing of this means that snow will fall as early as 8 a.m. to 11 a.m. Wednesday morning, increasing in severity throughout the day and into Thursday morning. At this moment, the snow will finish between 6 a.m. and 10 a.m. Thursday morning, and we should see some sunlight later in the day. This cyclone is now over the Pacific Northwest and will swiftly move across the Rockies today and into the Southern Plains on Tuesday.
From there, it will travel closer to the Gulf and take more moisture, swiftly intensifying before crossing Georgia into South Carolina. It will get stronger off the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. This is precisely what we term a “nor’easter.” Now, there are various elements that we must examine while this storm builds, some of which are: Exactly where the storm will travel and How much moisture will be above us?
That final one is essential since it allows us to choose the snowfall ratio. This is how much snow may fall. Many of you have heard the expression 10:1, which indicates that every 1 inch of rainfall, or liquid-equivalent, produces 10 inches of snow. That is a good rule of thumb, but it does not apply in all situations. Sometimes, we are a little warmer higher in the sky, so we get wetter, heavier snow, and the snowfall ratio may be 6:1 or 8:1, yet other times, the air is frigid, and we get lighter, more fluffy snow, with a snowfall ratio of 12:1 or 15:1.
For the last 24 hours, our weather models have reduced the amount of moisture expected for Central Virginia. Earlier this weekend, weather forecasts predicted 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent, which has since been reduced to 0.5 to 1 inch. That’s because the models have shifted somewhat southward, but this also makes the air colder, so all of these factors interact together.
Our current forecast—which is subject to change based on how we see things evolving with the different weather models over the next 24 to 36 hours—calls for 3 to 5 inches of snow in the areas from Ashland to Petersburg, as well as from Farmville to the Eastern side of the Northern Neck. The Petersburg, Tri-Cities, Middle Peninsula, and Northern Neck areas may have 5-7 inches of snow.
Areas northwest of Ashland, including Caroline County, areas of the Northern Neck west of Tappahannock, and Goochland, Louisa, Fluvanna, and Buckingham counties, might receive 1 to 3 inches of snow. The area closest to the storm and with the highest moisture will be along U.S. Highway 58 from Emporia east to the Tidewater. This area might receive 7-10 inches of snow. As previously said, this will be a lighter, fluffier snow than last week’s system, which should lessen the power disruptions in Central Virginia. We will continue to monitor the various models and advise you of any changes in those models and future projections.
